Recorded from the running worker. These are the only rows that can become public track record.
Track Record
Every signal has to survive review.
Public review of 1h, 6h, and 24h follow-ups. No performance claims until enough historical evidence is collected.
Each signal can produce separate 1h, 6h, and 24h checkpoints; this count is not unique signals.
Pending checkpoints are waiting for their target review window; this count can exceed unique signals.
Directional convergence uses one primary checkpoint per signal; flat and secondary checkpoints are reported separately.
Comparable Outcomes
Flat checkpoints do not count as wrong.
Aligned, against, flat, and pending are mutually exclusive. Directional accuracy is withheld until 30 moving checkpoints are comparable.
Comparable931
Aligned394
Against537
Flat940
1h cohort485 comparable45% observed / 565 flat
6h cohort368 comparable40% observed / 310 flat
24h cohort78 comparable39% observed / 65 flat
Historical Diagnostic
Backtest is ammunition, not a marketing claim.
This block reads available 24h probability history to diagnose signal quality. It must stay separate from live track record until enough recorded signals have matured.
Cards scanned20
Live history4/20
HOT / WATCH / SCAN0/7/13
Diagnostic alignment0%
- Source mode is Mixed; treat diagnostics as degraded.
- Worker warnings present: GDELT: GDELT fetch failed: 429; RSS fallback active
- Less than half of cards have live price history; do not market accuracy yet.
Historical Benchmark
External history is a benchmark, not our live record.
This baseline uses resolved Polymarket markets and the market probability observed about 24 hours before resolution. It measures market calibration only; it does not validate the Radar Estimate or inflate live performance.
No historical benchmark yet. Run pnpm historical-benchmark to create one.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8PM ET
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:45 UTC
Initial67.8%
Radar estimate83%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8PM ET
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:45 UTC
Initial67.8%
Radar estimate83%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8PM ET
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:45 UTC
Initial67.8%
Radar estimate83%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:45 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate32%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:45 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate32%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:45 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate32%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:40 UTC
Initial62%
Radar estimate50%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:40 UTC
Initial62%
Radar estimate50%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:40 UTC
Initial62%
Radar estimate50%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:39 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:39 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:39 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:32 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:32 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:32 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:27 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:27 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:27 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:25 UTC
Initial47%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:25 UTC
Initial47%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:25 UTC
Initial47%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:24 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate69%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:24 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate69%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:24 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate69%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:24 UTC
Initial20.6%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:24 UTC
Initial20.6%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:24 UTC
Initial20.6%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:23 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate25%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:23 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate25%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:23 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate25%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:23 UTC
Initial21.3%
Radar estimate32%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:23 UTC
Initial21.3%
Radar estimate32%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:23 UTC
Initial21.3%
Radar estimate32%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial75%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial75%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial75%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial51.25%
Radar estimate58%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial51.25%
Radar estimate58%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial51.25%
Radar estimate58%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:20 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:15 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:15 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:15 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:15 UTC
Initial85%
Radar estimate94%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:15 UTC
Initial85%
Radar estimate94%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:15 UTC
Initial85%
Radar estimate94%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:13 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:13 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:13 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:12 UTC
Initial77%
Radar estimate86%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:12 UTC
Initial77%
Radar estimate86%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:12 UTC
Initial77%
Radar estimate86%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:12 UTC
Initial5%
Radar estimate11%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:12 UTC
Initial5%
Radar estimate11%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:12 UTC
Initial5%
Radar estimate11%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:10 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate4%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:10 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate4%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:10 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate4%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:07 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:07 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:07 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial31%
Radar estimate14%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial31%
Radar estimate14%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial31%
Radar estimate14%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial32%
Radar estimate16%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial32%
Radar estimate16%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial32%
Radar estimate16%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate53%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate53%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate53%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial44%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial44%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-13 00:01 UTC
Initial44%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:58 UTC
Initial26%
Radar estimate5%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:58 UTC
Initial26%
Radar estimate5%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:58 UTC
Initial26%
Radar estimate5%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:56 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate45%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:56 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate45%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:56 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate45%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:56 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:56 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:56 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:50 UTC
Initial63%
Radar estimate74%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Live signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:50 UTC
Initial63%
Radar estimate74%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:50 UTC
Initial63%
Radar estimate74%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:40 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate18%
Checked37%
Delta-5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:40 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate18%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:40 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate18%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:38 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate29%
Checked21.55%
Delta+0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:38 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:38 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:31 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate22%
Checked15.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:31 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate22%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:31 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate22%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:25 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
Checked29.88%
Delta-0.120000000000001%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:25 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:25 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:24 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate60%
Checked47.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:24 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:24 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:23 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate69%
Checked56.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:23 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate69%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:23 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate69%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:23 UTC
Initial20.6%
Radar estimate27%
Checked20.65%
Delta+0.04999999999999716%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:23 UTC
Initial20.6%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:23 UTC
Initial20.6%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:21 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate31%
Checked22%
Delta+1%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:21 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate31%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:21 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate31%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:20 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate26%
Checked18.15%
Delta-0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:20 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:20 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial68%
Radar estimate90%
Checked75.5%
Delta+7.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial68%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial68%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
Checked51.13%
Delta-0.8699999999999974%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate27%
Checked34.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:19 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:14 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate60%
Checked54.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:14 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:14 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:12 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
Checked10.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:12 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:12 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:10 UTC
Initial64%
Radar estimate82%
Checked66.5%
Delta+2.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:10 UTC
Initial64%
Radar estimate82%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:10 UTC
Initial64%
Radar estimate82%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:10 UTC
Initial78%
Radar estimate87%
Checked76.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:10 UTC
Initial78%
Radar estimate87%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:10 UTC
Initial78%
Radar estimate87%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:06 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
Checked59.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:06 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:06 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial34%
Radar estimate20%
Checked31.5%
Delta-2.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial34%
Radar estimate20%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial34%
Radar estimate20%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate67%
Checked60.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate52%
Checked45.35%
Delta-0.04999999999999716%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate52%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 23:01 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate52%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6PM ET
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:59 UTC
Initial35%
Radar estimate28%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Checkpoint is overdue because no price sample was available near the target time.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6PM ET
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:59 UTC
Initial35%
Radar estimate28%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6PM ET
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:59 UTC
Initial35%
Radar estimate28%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:59 UTC
Initial48%
Radar estimate59%
Checked44%
Delta-4%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:59 UTC
Initial48%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:59 UTC
Initial48%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:58 UTC
Initial37%
Radar estimate22%
Checked25%
Delta-12%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:58 UTC
Initial37%
Radar estimate22%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:58 UTC
Initial37%
Radar estimate22%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:54 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
Checked41.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:54 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:54 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:53 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate45%
Checked38.85%
Delta-0.04999999999999716%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:53 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate45%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:53 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate45%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:49 UTC
Initial63%
Radar estimate74%
Checked62.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:49 UTC
Initial63%
Radar estimate74%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:49 UTC
Initial63%
Radar estimate74%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:49 UTC
Initial41%
Radar estimate33%
Checked40.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:49 UTC
Initial41%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:49 UTC
Initial41%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:41 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Checkpoint is overdue because no price sample was available near the target time.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:41 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:41 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate34%
Checked21.45%
Delta-0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate34%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate34%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:30 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
Checked15.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:30 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:30 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:25 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate35%
Checked29.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:25 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate35%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:25 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate35%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:24 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate81%
Checked99.95%
Delta+38.95%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:24 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate81%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:24 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate81%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:24 UTC
Initial45%
Radar estimate60%
Checked46.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:24 UTC
Initial45%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:24 UTC
Initial45%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate71%
Checked56.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate71%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate71%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial20.5%
Radar estimate27%
Checked20.55%
Delta+0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial20.5%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial20.5%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate3%
Checked18.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate3%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:23 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate3%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:21 UTC
Initial20.4%
Radar estimate30%
Checked21.15%
Delta+0.75%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:21 UTC
Initial20.4%
Radar estimate30%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:21 UTC
Initial20.4%
Radar estimate30%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:20 UTC
Initial18.1%
Radar estimate26%
Checked18.25%
Delta+0.14999999999999858%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:20 UTC
Initial18.1%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:20 UTC
Initial18.1%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:19 UTC
Initial82%
Radar estimate99%
Checked67.5%
Delta-14.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:19 UTC
Initial82%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:19 UTC
Initial82%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:19 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
Checked51.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:19 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:19 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:14 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate66%
Checked54.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:14 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate66%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:14 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate66%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:12 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
Checked10.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:12 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:12 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:09 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
Checked77.5%
Delta-2.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:09 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:09 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:08 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate1%
Checked0.05%
Delta-10.95%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:08 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:08 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:04 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
Checked59.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:04 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:04 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:00 UTC
Initial51%
Radar estimate63%
Checked51.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:00 UTC
Initial51%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 22:00 UTC
Initial51%
Radar estimate63%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:59 UTC
Initial81%
Radar estimate99%
Checked64.5%
Delta-16.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:59 UTC
Initial81%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:59 UTC
Initial81%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:58 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
Checked33.5%
Delta+16.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:58 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:58 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:54 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
Checked41.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:54 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:54 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:53 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate46%
Checked38.85%
Delta-0.04999999999999716%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:53 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:53 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:49 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate71%
Checked62.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:49 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate71%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:49 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate71%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:49 UTC
Initial47%
Radar estimate40%
Checked39.5%
Delta-7.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:49 UTC
Initial47%
Radar estimate40%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:49 UTC
Initial47%
Radar estimate40%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:48 UTC
Initial28%
Radar estimate13%
Checked27%
Delta-1%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:48 UTC
Initial28%
Radar estimate13%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:48 UTC
Initial28%
Radar estimate13%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:40 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate37%
Checked12.5%
Delta-29.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:40 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate37%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:40 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate37%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
Checked21.45%
Delta-0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:24 UTC
Initial45%
Radar estimate60%
Checked45.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:24 UTC
Initial45%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:24 UTC
Initial45%
Radar estimate60%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:24 UTC
Initial7%
Radar estimate1%
Checked59.5%
Delta+52.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:24 UTC
Initial7%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:24 UTC
Initial7%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial56%
Radar estimate67%
Checked56.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial56%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial56%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial20.2%
Radar estimate27%
Checked20.45%
Delta+0.25%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial20.2%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial20.2%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate6%
Checked18.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate6%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:23 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate6%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:21 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate29%
Checked20.55%
Delta+0.5500000000000007%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:21 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:21 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:20 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate26%
Checked18.15%
Delta-0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:20 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:20 UTC
Initial18.2%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:20 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
Checked29.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:20 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:20 UTC
Initial30%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial72%
Radar estimate88%
Checked0.05%
Delta-71.95%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial72%
Radar estimate88%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial72%
Radar estimate88%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial79%
Radar estimate99%
Checked81%
Delta+2%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial79%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial79%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
Checked51.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate53%
Checked45.35%
Delta-0.04999999999999716%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate53%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial45.4%
Radar estimate53%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
Checked15.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:18 UTC
Initial16%
Radar estimate23%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate68%
Checked54.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial87%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon1h
Checkpoint is overdue because no price sample was available near the target time.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial87%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial87%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate33%
Checked45.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:13 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:09 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
Checked79.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:09 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:09 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:04 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
Checked10.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:04 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:04 UTC
Initial11%
Radar estimate17%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:02 UTC
Initial53%
Radar estimate68%
Checked46.5%
Delta-6.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:02 UTC
Initial53%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 21:02 UTC
Initial53%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:59 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
Checked59.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:59 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:59 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:58 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate99%
Checked78%
Delta-2%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:58 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:58 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:57 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
Checked17%
Delta0%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:57 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:57 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:54 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate72%
Checked62%
Delta+1%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:54 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:54 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate66%
Checked45%
Delta-10%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate66%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate66%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
Checked41.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial34%
Radar estimate43%
Checked38.5%
Delta+4.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial34%
Radar estimate43%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:53 UTC
Initial34%
Radar estimate43%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:52 UTC
Initial38.8%
Radar estimate46%
Checked38.85%
Delta+0.05000000000000426%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:52 UTC
Initial38.8%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:52 UTC
Initial38.8%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:48 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate71%
Checked61.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:48 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate71%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:48 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate71%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:47 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate15%
Checked27%
Delta-2%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:47 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate15%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:47 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate15%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
Checked21.45%
Delta-0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:37 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:32 UTC
Initial70%
Radar estimate80%
Checked50.5%
Delta-19.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:32 UTC
Initial70%
Radar estimate80%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:32 UTC
Initial70%
Radar estimate80%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:23 UTC
Initial39%
Radar estimate52%
Checked43.5%
Delta+4.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:23 UTC
Initial39%
Radar estimate52%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:23 UTC
Initial39%
Radar estimate52%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:22 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate68%
Checked56.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:22 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:22 UTC
Initial57%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:22 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate26%
Checked7.5%
Delta-25.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:22 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:22 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:21 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate7%
Checked18.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:21 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate7%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:21 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate7%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:19 UTC
Initial18.4%
Radar estimate26%
Checked18.25%
Delta-0.14999999999999858%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:19 UTC
Initial18.4%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:19 UTC
Initial18.4%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:19 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate29%
Checked19.85%
Delta-0.14999999999999858%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:19 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:19 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial14%
Radar estimate1%
Checked71.5%
Delta+57.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial14%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial14%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial82%
Radar estimate99%
Checked78.5%
Delta-3.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial82%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial82%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial29.3%
Radar estimate43%
Checked21.9%
Delta-7.400000000000002%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial29.3%
Radar estimate43%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial29.3%
Radar estimate43%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
Checked51.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:18 UTC
Initial52%
Radar estimate59%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate68%
Checked54.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial55%
Radar estimate68%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate33%
Checked44.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial45.6%
Radar estimate54%
Checked45.35%
Delta-0.25%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial45.6%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:13 UTC
Initial45.6%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:08 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
Checked79.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:08 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:08 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:02 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate70%
Checked50%
Delta-4%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:02 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate70%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 20:02 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate70%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:59 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate6%
Checked0.05%
Delta-20.95%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:59 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate6%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:59 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate6%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:59 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
Checked59.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:59 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:59 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:57 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
Checked18.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:57 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:57 UTC
Initial17%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:52 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate46%
Checked38.85%
Delta-0.04999999999999716%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:52 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:52 UTC
Initial38.9%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:51 UTC
Initial36%
Radar estimate46%
Checked35.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:51 UTC
Initial36%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:51 UTC
Initial36%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:51 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
Checked41.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:51 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:51 UTC
Initial42%
Radar estimate48%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:47 UTC
Initial84%
Radar estimate99%
Checked99.95%
Delta+15.950000000000003%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:47 UTC
Initial84%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:47 UTC
Initial84%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:47 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate1%
Checked99.95%
Delta+84.95%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:47 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:47 UTC
Initial15%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:46 UTC
Initial25%
Radar estimate2%
Checked99.95%
Delta+74.95%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:46 UTC
Initial25%
Radar estimate2%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:46 UTC
Initial25%
Radar estimate2%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:46 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate14%
Checked28.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:46 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate14%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:46 UTC
Initial29%
Radar estimate14%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:42 UTC
Initial75%
Radar estimate88%
Checked99.95%
Delta+24.950000000000003%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:42 UTC
Initial75%
Radar estimate88%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:42 UTC
Initial75%
Radar estimate88%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:42 UTC
Initial65%
Radar estimate75%
Checked50.5%
Delta-14.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:42 UTC
Initial65%
Radar estimate75%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:42 UTC
Initial65%
Radar estimate75%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:36 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
Checked21.45%
Delta-0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:36 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:36 UTC
Initial21.5%
Radar estimate33%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:32 UTC
Initial86%
Radar estimate99%
Checked89.5%
Delta+3.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:32 UTC
Initial86%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:32 UTC
Initial86%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:21 UTC
Initial56%
Radar estimate67%
Checked56.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:21 UTC
Initial56%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:21 UTC
Initial56%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:20 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate7%
Checked19%
Delta-1%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:20 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate7%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:20 UTC
Initial20%
Radar estimate7%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:18 UTC
Initial18.3%
Radar estimate26%
Checked18.35%
Delta+0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:18 UTC
Initial18.3%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:18 UTC
Initial18.3%
Radar estimate26%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:18 UTC
Initial19.9%
Radar estimate29%
Checked19.95%
Delta+0.05000000000000071%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:18 UTC
Initial19.9%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:18 UTC
Initial19.9%
Radar estimate29%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial24%
Radar estimate6%
Checked14.5%
Delta-9.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial24%
Radar estimate6%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial24%
Radar estimate6%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial77%
Radar estimate99%
Checked83%
Delta+6%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial77%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial77%
Radar estimate99%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial51%
Radar estimate58%
Checked51.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial51%
Radar estimate58%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:17 UTC
Initial51%
Radar estimate58%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:12 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate67%
Checked54.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:12 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:12 UTC
Initial54%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:12 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate34%
Checked44.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:12 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate34%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:12 UTC
Initial46%
Radar estimate34%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:08 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
Checked79.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:08 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:08 UTC
Initial80%
Radar estimate90%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:08 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate72%
Checked59.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:08 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:08 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate72%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial62%
Radar estimate84%
Checked53.5%
Delta-8.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial62%
Radar estimate84%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial62%
Radar estimate84%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial41%
Radar estimate54%
Checked39.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial41%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial41%
Radar estimate54%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate70%
Checked59.5%
Delta-1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate70%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial61%
Radar estimate70%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial25%
Radar estimate36%
Checked27.8%
Delta+2.8000000000000007%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial25%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC
Initial25%
Radar estimate36%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:57 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
Checked59.5%
Delta-0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:57 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:57 UTC
Initial60%
Radar estimate67%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:57 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate27%
Checked20.5%
Delta-12.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:57 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:57 UTC
Initial33%
Radar estimate27%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:56 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate1%
Checked15.5%
Delta-5.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:56 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:56 UTC
Initial21%
Radar estimate1%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:51 UTC
Initial38.8%
Radar estimate46%
Checked38.85%
Delta+0.05000000000000426%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:51 UTC
Initial38.8%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:51 UTC
Initial38.8%
Radar estimate46%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:47 UTC
Initial67%
Radar estimate81%
Checked84.5%
Delta+17.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability converged toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:47 UTC
Initial67%
Radar estimate81%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:47 UTC
Initial67%
Radar estimate81%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:46 UTC
Initial27%
Radar estimate5%
Checked28.5%
Delta+1.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:46 UTC
Initial27%
Radar estimate5%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon6h
Live signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
24h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:46 UTC
Initial27%
Radar estimate5%
CheckedPending
Delta-
Horizon24h
Live signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:45 UTC
Initial27%
Radar estimate12%
Checked27.5%
Delta+0.5%
Horizon1h
Market probability moved less than 1 point; this checkpoint is flat and excluded from directional accuracy.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
6h review / opened 2026-07-12 18:45 UTC
Initial27%
Radar estimate12%
Checked29%
Delta+2%
Horizon6h
Market probability failed to converge toward the Radar Estimate at the target checkpoint.