EVENT ALPHA RADARPrediction Market Intelligence Terminal
SYNCINGP0 Realtime Truth CandidateLast refresh: 23:30 UTCWorker age: nowNext check: 5s cards / 30s health
Mixed
Building per-market live coverage
ACTIVE READWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket / Sports
18.25% Market26% Radar+7.8% Gap26 Signal
Market may be underpricing

Radar estimate sits +7.8% above market; the read leans higher but still needs evidence.

Keep on scan
Trigger

Volume is elevated versus the current move profile.

Evidence Console

Evidence Console

Live trend
TriggerSourceTimeImpact
VerdictEvent Alpha RadarRadar estimate sits +7.8% above market; the read leans higher but still needs evidence.
Market-model gapEvent Alpha Radar+7.8% gap / signal 26
Short-window moveCLOB price history30m 0% / 1h +0.1% / 24h +1.4%
24H probability movePolymarket+1.4% move
Volume / liquidityPolymarket$6.9M VOL / $7.7M LIQ
Evidence depthMarket data onlyNo external source matched this scan; confidence remains in calibration.
Open market
No hot signals right now

The radar is still scanning. This tier will populate only when a read meets its own threshold.

Signals tracked1063
Verified checkpoints1801
Pending checkpoints1388
Directional accuracy44%
Comparable / flat898 / 903
Ledger note

Directional convergence uses one primary checkpoint per signal; flat and secondary checkpoints are reported separately.

Next verification

First verification batch: due now

ANOMALY FEED / SYNCING
Market HeatWhy this board is leaning here right now.
Sports leads / $23.9M 24H volume / 13 live trends

01 HOT

High gap / active flow

No hot signals right nowThe radar is still scanning this tier. Open all reads to inspect the full monitored universe.

02 WATCH

Developing edge / risk attached

EventMarketRadar est.GapVerdict24H Trend24H Move24H Vol / LiqConfRiskAction
18.25%market26%radar estimate+7.8%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scan+1.4%24H MOVE$6.9M$7.7M LIQPendingLow
38.85%market46%radar estimate+7.2%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scan+0.4%24H MOVE$3.1M$6.7M LIQPendingLow
21.45%market28%radar estimate+6.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scan+0.7%24H MOVE$2.9M$7.3M LIQPendingLow
20.55%market27%radar estimate+6.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scan-0.1%24H MOVE$3.0M$8.0M LIQPendingLow

03 SCAN

Lower conviction / still monitored

EventMarketRadar est.GapVerdict24H Trend24H Move24H Vol / LiqConfRiskAction
51.5%market57%radar estimate+5.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scanUnavailable0%24H MOVE$689K$2.0M LIQPendingLow
29.5%market35%radar estimate+5.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scanUnavailable0%24H MOVE$612K$3.4M LIQPendingLow
15.5%market21%radar estimate+5.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scanUnavailable0%24H MOVE$141K$1.8M LIQPendingLow
60.5%market66%radar estimate+5.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scanUnavailable0%24H MOVE$135K$1.6M LIQPendingLow
56.5%market62%radar estimate+5.5%radar-marketUNDERPRICEDKeep on scanUnavailable0%24H MOVE$242K$1.1M LIQPendingMedium
62.5%market67%radar estimate+4.5%radar-marketWATCHKeep on scanUnavailable0%24H MOVE$128K$98K LIQLowHigh

Alert Desk

Preview
Alert delivery preview

HOT ALERT / Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Market 18.25% | Radar 26% | Gap +7.8% | $6.9M VOL / $7.7M LIQ

0 watched / 0 alert rules saved locally. Telegram is connected; automatic public delivery remains gated during validation.

System health

Backfill mode

Last worker: 23:30 UTC. Last note: News feed: fetch failed; RSS fallback active.

Public Signal Ledger

Trust and audit. Pending means recorded live but not old enough for follow-up. Demo rows are not performance claims.

Open ledger
TimeEventClassMarketRadar est.Gap1h6h24hStatusReview note
23:25 UTCWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?1H30%36%+6%Pending--PendingLive signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
23:25 UTCWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?6H30%36%+6%-Pending-PendingLive signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
23:25 UTCWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?24H30%36%+6%--PendingPendingLive signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
23:24 UTCWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?1H46%60%+14%Pending--PendingLive signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.
23:24 UTCWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?6H46%60%+14%-Pending-PendingLive signal recorded; 6h checkpoint is pending.
23:24 UTCWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?24H46%60%+14%--PendingPendingLive signal recorded; 24h checkpoint is pending.
23:23 UTCWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1H57%69%+12%Pending--PendingLive signal recorded; 1h checkpoint is pending.